本号引起极度舒适,建议星标一下
“这个行业存在大量的、重复的无效劳动。开播太耗人力和精力,产出也不确定,无论是主播还是商家,都没办法长期忍受这种浪费。而拼量可以有能力将120亿次选品交互中的其中20亿次压缩简化成180万次。”
作者 | 黎佳瑜
编辑 | 邵乐乐
这是「三声」报道的第576家创业公司
你所观看的每一场电商直播背后,都藏着无数次的选品交互。
选品环节的效率低下是品牌与主播共同的痛点,对于构成直播生态基本盘的中小商家与主播而言尤其如此。缺少预算的中小品牌在选择纯佣主播时往往要耗费大量的人力与精力对接,且转化效果不稳定;中小主播缺乏议价能力,难以触达优质供应链。
成立于2017年的拼量网瞄准了这一痛点。拼量的定位是一家S2B的KOL电商服务商,核心业务是以数据驱动、搭建千人千面的选品平台,连接中小主播与中小品牌。拼量网服务的全网主播已达5.7万人,商品库有40000+SKU,每个月上新2000-3000个SKU,上架商品维持在6000-7500左右,更新频率很高。
数据能力是拼量的一大竞争壁垒。其创始人郑雷表示,公司自创立以来对数据库持续投入了超过1500万元,对机器学习算法和大数据架构进行了九次迭代。人货匹配的关键在于提高效率和精准适配,后一项目前在淘系只有拼量能做到,其选品命中率约为37%。2019年5月,拼量的单月GMV破5000万。
“这个行业里,谁数据精准,谁对接效率高,谁能产出真正的销量,谁就能活下来。”
在服务纯佣主播以外,拼量于去年9月开辟了大主播付费开播的精确选播服务。拼量扮演着类似TP公司的角色,掌握品牌的投放预算,通过全网付费主播的销售数据分析,预判并匹配最合适品牌的头部主播,并以任务的形式推送至后者的招商团队。
郑雷将拼量定位为”超级数据驱动的、超级供应链方向的超级服务商”。直播与短视频带货的风口,以及平台”百播大战”到来,都为拼量开辟出了新的增长空间。拼量于19年6月开始扩大服务平台的范围。今年3月,拼量得到来自微博的投资,双方将在微博内容电商领域开展合作。对于拼多多直播、抖音短视频带货的尝试也在进行中。
作为开放的第三方服务商,包括淘宝直播、快手、抖音、拼多多、微博等平台在内,凡是能够跑通业务,就都在拼量网的布局中。多平台服务的策略也要求拼量强化自身的服务能力,对此郑雷表示,拼量将在供应链、前端数据等方面做进一步拓展与打磨。
以下是《三声》(微信公众号ID:tosansheng)与拼量网创始人郑雷的对话整理:
01 | 高效,精确,连接
没有预算的商家苦于如何选主播、反复做开播筹备,中小主播的痛点在于势单力薄拿不到好货。拼量是一个连接两端的枢纽,以数据赋能,提高两端对接的效率与选品命中率,成为品牌的销售渠道和KOL的选品平台。
三声:创立拼量网的契机是什么?
郑雷:其实是由圈子内部触发的。2017年很多经纪公司的广告收入、MCN和直播公会的打赏收入都在下滑,大家开始讨论直播带货是否可行。经过一段时间观察,我们决定做KOL带货赋能,因为无论大小KOL,都有从选品到运营的需求。
最早拼量做了一个小程序管理后台,为每个KOL开辟独立的子模块,有自己的商品池、内容库和店铺,模式接近KOL内容电商版的有赞小店。到2018年8月、9月发现小程序的用户留存很差,很多人买完以后找不到入口、想不起来是在哪里买的,我们就开始开发APP和PC端;同时因为靠人力实在忙不过来,还是需要数据驱动,就开始自建KOL的带货数据库。
一开始服务的KOL千奇百怪,淘宝直播、斗鱼、微博、微信公众号、B站和小红书的都有,跑不通的我就放弃。2018年底发现淘宝直播和快手数据更好,所以我们基本上就ALL IN直播了。当时的淘宝直播最早只有3万达人主播,现在发展到了近20万。
三声:商家和主播对于拼量这样的服务商的需求有多大?
郑雷:淘宝直播每天都会发生无数次主播与品牌的交互。从体量来说,今年淘宝大约会有3100万场达人直播,其中1500万场是标品,按单场40个SKU计算,总共涉及6亿个SKU。淘宝直播的标品平均选中率是1/20,所以光是标品直播,最低就有120亿次选品交互。
商家的痛点是不知道商品在什么条件下适合什么样的主播,而且要为每个主播、每场直播都做一次开播筹备。而主播的痛点是想要好的、合适的商品,但因为势单力薄而找不到。
这个行业存在大量的、重复的无效劳动。开播太耗人力和精力,产出也不确定,无论是主播还是商家,都没办法长期忍受这种浪费,而拼量通过千人千面的精准适配有可能将120亿次选品交互中的20亿次压缩简化成180万次。
三声:拼量通过哪些服务解决这些痛点?
郑雷:拼量的双重身份分别是品牌方的销售渠道和KOL的选货平台,目前有两个业务板块:一是为中小主播纯佣对接无预算品牌,二是品牌付费精准投放中大付费主播。
对于纯佣主播,我们通过绑定大体量的KOL,向品牌拿到足够好的价格政策,锁定库存;另外,我们做一次开播筹备后,可以复制给N个主播。
去年9月,我们开辟了付费开播的精确选播,拿品牌预算帮他们做投放。超头部与部分头部主播不需要供应链赋能,品牌都围着他们转;但品牌不知道怎么提高投放产出、效率和精准度。拼量数据中心可以智能分析所有主播的历史开播与销售数据,为品牌预判和适配高ROI的大主播,将付费开播任务推送给优先主播们的招商或运营。当然,接不接看主播自己。
三声:如何提高人货匹配环节的效率和精确度?
郑雷:拼量的数据库能够全域、全量、全天候地实时监控和抓取主播的带货数据。我们对几百亿条信息进行清洗,得到有效数据大约是18-19亿条,足够判断每一个电商主播是谁、属于什么类目、不同品类的客单价区间、最擅长和最常带的货是什么,以及粉丝增长速度、平均在线时长、转化率等等。
我们对商品池有一套独创的权重算法,通过近似模糊查询,对每个主播做权重排序,去匹配最适配的商品。只有薇娅、李佳琦、陈洁kiki、罗永浩这种量级的主播才会跨类目带货,而中小主播甚至是大主播都是非常专注于垂类的,所以我们根据主播的历史带货SKU和销售数据,就能判断他需要什么货。
提高效率很多人可以做到,但据说,目前全行业只有拼量做到了精准适配+全自动化开播,我们的选品命中率挺高的,在37%左右。从2018年到现在,我们在数据中心持续地投入了超过1500万,做了九代算法迭代,还不是特别满意,但因为主要服务中小主播,帮他们对接中小品牌已经够用了。
这个行业里,谁做得好,谁对接效率高,谁能产生真正的销量,谁就能活下来。
三声:拼量的开播筹备服务覆盖哪些环节?
郑雷:拼量平台以标品为主,标品开播必须有实物,所以我们首先免费提供样品。商家给到拼量的样品,我们用系统做最优化分配,找到最合适的主播,并且样品是有限制、有额度的。第二是内容,包括脚本和话术,拼量把淘系直播中几种流派的素材都提供到位。另外还有淘客定向链接,像优惠券、定价、库存、开播排期等等,都在开播筹备范畴。
非标品没有办法寄样,但是电商主播主要集中在杭州、广州等几个城市,所以我们建了直播基地,有二十几个直播间和七、八个大展厅,主播线上预约直播间,线下开播。
拼量网的线下直播基地
三声:目前拼量的商品库规模有多大?选品和定价的标准是什么?
郑雷:我们是全类目的,两年来通过拼量选品组的严格筛选的SKU大约四万三千个,面向纯佣主播的上架商品维持在6000-7500个左右,每个月上新在2500到3000个;付费品牌是211个。因为有千人千面,所以任何一个账号都不能看到拼量的所有商品,这也避免了我们的选品库被复制。
去年5月我们的单月GMV破5000万以后,越来越多的商家主动要求入驻拼量。现在每个月有五、六千个商家申请,但通过拼量审核的只有400家。我们定向BD的TOP级品牌、或是大主播带过的商品,每个月在1100家左右。
拼量的选品规则加起来有70多条,但商品的维度是研究不尽的,现在对产品测评的颗粒度到了内容物成分配方配比、规格、乃至包装材质。我们研发了两套不对外的插件,通过分析商品的90天销售曲线、价格波动、DSR评分、评价页面等数据,帮招商团队做选品判断。
对没有开播预算的品牌方,我们的要求是拿出给大主播的直播政策,能接受拼量的规矩你就来,不接受就算了,我们也不是人民币,不可能每个人都喜欢。当然,我们也会保护商家的价格底线,一些平台不会管商家的盈亏,但拼量要管,因为拼量最终长期服务的是商家。“共同成长的商家-拼量-专业电商主播”,这就是拼量努力维系的小生态,依存于阿里、抖音、快手、腾讯等互联网流量主的规则之下的小生态。
02 | 风口上的”超级服务商”
直播带货的爆发源于用户对传统电商模式的审美疲劳。郑雷预计KOL电商会在2022年达到峰值3万亿,其中有近2亿用户将无法回到传统电商场景。拼量要做一家超级供应链方向的超级服务商,体量足够大,才有资格活下来。
三声:直播电商给传统电商模式带来的冲击有多大?会从根本上改变淘宝的展示和卖货逻辑吗?
郑雷:传统电商和直播电商完全是两个不同的场景,不是说哪种场景更好,只有更适合哪一类人。有的人对价格敏感,又有足够的空闲时间,尤其是作为家庭购买决策者的女性,会更倾向直播。没时间的人还是通过搜索购买。
传统电商就五个字”搜索、逛、活动”,需要什么就搜什么,搜完逛一逛,活动就是618和双11。比如男性,哪有闲工夫看直播?有那时间玩游戏不开心吗?需要袜子的时候,从打开淘宝到搜索到下单支付到关掉APP,三分钟。
但对女性来说,看直播一、两个小时津津有味,能在弹幕里跟不认识的人讨论这颜色真好看,我身高160体重120能穿吗?还会有一堆人安慰你,可以穿的,很好看。
三声:直播电商对品牌和销量的作用是长期、巨大且可持续的吗?
郑雷:我个人预判可持续。今年会有很多平台都做直播,只要有流量都会做。2019年直播+短视频电商的GMV是5500亿,占互联网零售总额10.9万亿中的5%左右,这个比例比2018年翻了五倍。
今年直播+短视频的GMV大概率会破1万亿。到2022年全国互联网零售总额应该在15万亿,而KOL电商应该会达到峰值3万亿左右,占20%以上,其中大概率有1万亿短视频电商。
大家都能看到直播爆发,但是背后藏着什么?藏着中国网络购物用户对传统电商模式的不满,或者审美疲劳。
大家都看到淘系的商品详情页打开次数、浏览时长连续11季度在降低。用户看腻了PS的详情页主图和自卖自夸的文案,想买什么看看名字和价格就买了,因为心里知道你是啥,也不用看卖家秀了。而有20%-30%的女性用户,觉得直播特别好,能够所见即所得,这是非常伟大的购买场景与体验创新。
直播电商实现了消费者从接触、支付到购买的全流程体验升级,这毋庸置疑是一个会长期存在的商业模式,电商的新场景。当然未来五年占总体量最大比重的还是传统电商的搜索和活动,但有三分之一、乃至更多电商交易是在KOL推荐的场景中完成的,因为有2亿左右女性用户和数千万男性用户,都会由奢入俭难、无法回到传统电商场景。
三声:面对不同层级的主播,以及不同平台的电商直播,商家的诉求会有什么不同?
郑雷:找头部和超头部主播,一半是为了销量,一半是因为他们有很强的品牌背书;除此之外,找其他电商主播开播就是为了销量。
当然平台规则不同,用户的使用目的和心智也各不相同。打开淘宝就是来买东西的,主播肯定以推荐商品为主;打开抖音是来休闲娱乐的,所以用内容驱动、获取注意力,品宣效果会比较好。粗糙的区分,淘宝直播里90%带货,10%品宣;抖音是60%品宣,40%是带货;快手是私域流量带货,只认主播不认品牌;微博将来会稳定在40%品宣,30%种草,30%带货。
三声:身兼促销量和打品牌作用的大主播,理论上能给品牌提供更大的价值。
郑雷:是的,大主播给品牌提供大价值。但问题是极少数主播或者代理商为了降低销售难度,把品牌方的价格底线给刺穿了,品牌是比较危险的,有些像饮鸩止渴。
三声:谁有能力喊停?能喊停吗?
郑雷:全行业都希望这种情况别持续下去,但我们说了不算,谁制定规则谁说了算。现在在阿里的全平台直播战略下,开直播的天猫店增加搜索权重,不开就落后。几百万天猫商家前仆后继地往里冲,没办法。但我觉得平台是可以稍微保护一下商家的,比如规定任何主播带任何商品,不允许低于S级大促的价格。
三声:考虑到红利期还在持续,至少现在品牌投放大主播的意愿还是非常强烈的。
郑雷:从流量逻辑来说,假设一家天猫店有10万粉丝,每年复购GMV3000万,今年这家店砸钱跟所有大主播都合作一轮,产出好的主播尽量签年框。一年下来花了大价钱和人力精力,从直播间引流了一批尝试购买用户,粉丝从10万增长到80万,但平均成交价被动降低了10%,你说是亏了还是赚了?
我想大部分的品牌方还是会继续拥抱直播的,如果商品本身属于刚需、或有复购能力,这么做是划算的;但如果是低频低复购,这家店就容易亏损了。
三声:中小主播也会想要拿到最低的价格,否则粉丝可能会对直播间产生不信任感,毕竟在用户心智中,直播间的东西都是最便宜的。我们在服务中小主播的时候会遇到类似的困惑吗?
郑雷:还好,因为超头部主播一直是特殊价格政策的,虽然转化率非常高,但因为限量大部分时候观众买不到。假设某个消费者需要买一双鞋,通过搜索看图文展示的价格是299,在大部分直播间所见即所得是199,薇娅李佳琦的直播间卖189但要拼网速和手速,你怎么选?这就是消费者心理。
拼量APP
三声:抛开这一点,除了销量和品宣,你认为直播带货对品牌还有积极的影响吗?
郑雷:有。一是品效合一,效率更高,更直接且精准;二是反向推动品牌升级,比如改造产品研发、供应链发货、组织架构等环节。从C to KOL to B的商业架构逻辑来说,KOL大量接收粉丝反馈后,会跟供应链或品牌方提要求,比如包装不够精美、物流太慢,都会通过直播弹幕或是粉丝群暴露出来,品牌方会被逼着做改变。另外一些商品,在传统电商场景下或许有竞争力,但在直播镜头下劣势纤毫毕现。
被改变的不单是消费者的购买心态与场景,更多的是品牌方组织商品的方法,而这个积极的影响会长期持续。当然商业竞争永存,一些跟不上的品牌必然会被淘汰或分流。
三声:处于上游品牌和下游主播之间,拼量的机会有多大?过去外界会认为类MCN的服务商是一个赚钱的生意,但是增长空间相对还是有限的。
郑雷:我看好的KOL电商赛道,包含了图文、直播和短视频三个小赛道。图文体量小但客单价高;直播领域出现了多个平台,凡是有流量的,无论是传统电商平台、短视频平台还是泛娱乐平台,甚至各种工具APP也在做直播,这很像当年的百团大战,所以直播今年还是会很火;短视频在抖音的运营下应该会大爆发,而且抖音的短视频带货、信息流带货加上红人直播带货,产出可能不比淘宝直播低。加上抖音有3亿多日活,而淘宝直播才2000多万,抖音是今年创业圈最值得期待的流量机会。
在这个大赛道中,我最看好三种业务形态:超级MCN,超级供应链,和超级服务商,这都是有机会成为百亿美元估值的超级独角兽的。这是在新的电商场景中切割出来的、新的增长机会。在整个直播电商的阶段来说,目前还只是初级阶段,远远谈不上什么下半场,所以未来十五年,长盛不衰。
拼量的努力方向是超级供应链方向的超级服务商。我其实不在意外界怎么看拼量,我们足够努力,布局也够,接下来要继续努力,因为还早得很。这个行业要么主播做到年销百亿,要么就是MCN签约主播的同时,积累了上百个年销过亿的品牌,要么就是能服务上万个主播或品牌方的服务商,才有资格活下来。
但无论是什么角色,都离不开阿里、京东、快手、抖音这些平台方的管理和支持。平台就是军校校长,我们在这学习新电商。
03 | 服务多平台
尽管近期接受了微博的战略投资,拼量的原则依然是”不站队”。作为开放、无偏向的第三方服务商,直播电商的”百播大战”为拼量提供了更广阔的扎根土壤,但随之而来问题是,如何针对不同平台拓展供应链、调整前端架构。
三声:拼量的定位是更偏供应链的服务商,会出现在供应链过于依赖平台的情况吗?尤其是对天猫品牌供应链的依赖。
郑雷:拼量是没有平台偏向性与属性的,肯定要开放,要跨平台。凡是业务能跑通的平台,我都要服务。我们在淘宝服务主播就用淘系的商家;快手主推快手小店、拼多多和有赞商家;抖音则以小店、天猫为主;微博目前在搭生态,还没有大规模开放。
三声:但首先不同平台带的货是不同的,其次各平台推直播时的核心点也是不一样的,比如快手更倾向于与原产地合作,做工厂、产业带的源头好货,淘宝直播跟品牌店铺的合作更多。拼量如果要服务不同平台,就需要拓展不同的供应链。
郑雷:是的。快手选这个切入点是无奈之举,你不能说决策是对或错。快手和拼多多商家是高转化率套餐,可以好好做,因为中国十几亿人,随便一个细分人群,也是千万级用户,每年做几百亿、上千亿的GMV不难的。
我们已经在布局拼多多直播了,所有平台都必须做,拼多多是同样的道理。每天打开拼多多的是什么人?为什么打开?是为拼团砍价而来,还是营销短信吸引来的?进入拼多多直播间,用户能获得什么?都需要去分析。
但是拼多多直播没有发展得很快,比他们自己预料得要慢很多。
三声:拼多多对于速度的预期可能是基于平台自身流量足够大。我们都知道淘宝直播的货品优势更强,但DAU只有2000多万,而抖音和快手都在3亿以上。流量之差会不会威胁到淘宝直播的行业老大地位?
郑雷:互联网零售的核心是货,但成败看服务。至于流量,这几位大佬谁缺流量?拿另外一个例子说,罗老师在抖音的首秀观众几千万,这么大的流量卖两个亿很容易了。
关键在于流量的用户体验好,留存时间长,转化率高,这才是流量价值最大化,或者叫电商价值的最大化。淘宝直播DAU是没有其他两家高,但后端能力强,在留存和转化上都遥遥领先。
三声:为什么会接受微博的投资?
郑雷:微博广告营收连续下滑,所以一定要启动电商化。微博电商化的优势是场景比较好,博文是图文,秒拍和Vlog算短视频,又有直播手段,加上微博又是第一大社交媒体,所以很容易打通三位一体的立体营销,做内容型KOL电商。再加上微博的第二大股东是阿里,也容易搭建优秀的电商基础设施。
当然,微博也毕竟有1亿多的DAU,其中大概有8%的用户会通过各种引导进入直播间,天花板比较明显。大家都期待微博今年做到几百亿人民币的电商GMV,并且建立起完善的内容电商生态。对于拼量来说,难得有一个平台愿意扶持我们这种服务商。
三声:你刚才提到淘系直播里没有人能跟得上拼量,那在快手的直播生态里拼量的竞争对手还挺多的。
郑雷:快手是私域流量直播,主播开播只有自己的粉丝看得到,所以选品很迷,没有逻辑。拼量的千人千面在快手跑不通,所以我们给快手主播推荐的都是低客单价的优质商品,每个快手主播看到的商品是一样的,SKU也不多。快手有多少同行我们还真没研究,因为暂时不是我们核心的业务阵地。
三声:可以理解为拼量的业务逻辑在淘宝直播更有优势吗?因为你掌握了前端和后端资源,核心竞争力是利用中台能力更好地匹配两端。
郑雷:短期内拼量的千人千面还是在公域流量分发的直播平台上更有优势,因为数据源更完整,学习得最久。但接下来在抖音上会更加淋漓尽致,因为拼量团队的第一大基因是数据化的内容营销。
淘宝直播目前还是特卖型平台,特价为第一驱动,而抖音是视频内容为主,有更多的用户画像和内容场景结合空间,和更完整的逻辑算法,拼量的很多能力在抖音上面更容易发挥。目前我们在抖音只监控了3万多个带货主播的数据,而且他们不是每天都带,所以学习得会慢一点。
另外你们有没有注意到,直播是实时的,只有几秒延迟,但短视频是点播,某个KOL在一年前发布的带货短视频,新用户现在点进去还可以再买,它的后端逻辑非常不一样。谁能保证一款商品在一年内不下架、不售罄、不迭代、不改价?这就是我们的机会。
三声:但你的系统需要适配抖音的逻辑算法,重新做打磨吗?
郑雷:后台和数据中心没有太大的变化,但前端会做很多调整。未来在拼量的PC端,淘宝、抖音和快手主播登录看到的就是不同平台的选品区,这个比较艰难,预计会在7、8月份完成。
现在抖音的后端接口还是不完全开放的,抖音官方还没有做好迎接短视频电商爆发的准备,但拼量要先做好。
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