来源:金融界
选择优于努力,这是我20多年来在人大清华、国家智囊机构、金融机构等学习工作的最大深刻体会。每个时代都有属于每个时代的机会,虽然我们会面临旧时代落幕的各种挑战,但也必将迎来新时代来临的各种机遇,对我们每个人而言,拥抱未来就是给自己打开了一扇窗。
最近两年最大的风口是什么?我觉得主要有两大风口:一个是新能源,我提出过“当下不投新能源,就像20年前没买房”,新能源是未来极具爆发力和增长空间的行业;另一个就是以短视频、直播等代表的数字经济,我把它称为“新基建2.0革命”,提供了大量线上线下相结合的开放式应用场景,深刻改变了我们的生产生活方式,很多中小企业因此实现了困境反转,我前段时间连麦的俞敏洪老师也因此实现了二次创业再出发。是的,我也在抖音、视频号开了账号,传播有用有趣的财经知识。我认为,当下中国经济唯一能够跟新能源媲美的就是短视频和直播。当下不做短视频和直播,就像20年前没上网,这是全新的流量时代。
这是最好的时代,这是最坏的时代,取决于你有没有拥抱这两大风口。这个时代尤其需要励志和奋斗,而以抖音为代表的短视频直播平台,为每个人提供了实现梦想的舞台。这些都再一次证明了,中国经济具有强大的韧性,世界终将属于乐观主义者。
1、经济形势复杂多变,商家何去何从?
自2020年初,国内经济放缓、消费整体低迷,企业和家庭无不在遭遇挑战,接触性、聚集性的行业受到的影响尤甚。2020年全国社会消费品零售总额同比下降3.9%,其中餐饮收入同比下降了16.6%;2021年消费整体有所恢复,餐饮收入较2020年增长18.6%,但仍未能回到2019年水平;2022年1-6月,餐饮收入再度下滑,累计同比下降7.7%。宏观上是数据,微观上是多少家庭的悲欢离合。
最近看到「抖音生活者说」活动的一组关于餐饮行业的镜头。长沙渔人码头一条街上的中小商家,在2020年的重击中,客流从日均2万骤减到500人次不到,骤然的冷遇是所有餐饮商家面临的困境。作为接触性聚集性行业,他们自2020年起都面临着一个共同的难题:堂食受限、游客骤减,但店租和人力成本每月都会如约而至,坚持还是放弃?虽然6月以来经济开始恢复,但两年多的防疫生活已经大幅改变了居民外出和就餐习惯,后疫情时代餐饮商家的经营应当如何变化?
2、短视频和直播站上风口,改变了居民生活模式和企业经营模式,带来全新机遇
流量时代早已来临,催生自媒体视频平台的第一轮蓬勃发展,此前主要聚焦于内容侧。我们在2018年发布过一篇文章研究短视频的崛起之谜,经历2016-2018年的短视频平台加速发展的黄金时期,2018年短视频总月活跃用户已破5亿,抖音等短视频平台在短时间里迅速成为人们生活中的热门应用,技术升级、产品体验、用户需求共同推动短视频爆发。这一阶段,驱动短视频平台发展的主要是用户对于内容的需求。
近两年居家防疫等政策推动下,短视频直播平台迎来了新一轮蓬勃发展,与电商侧的结合全面改变了居民的生活模式和企业的经营模式。传统营销模式以硬广为主,低效、高成本、商业味道浓,近两年居家防疫的客观限制和减少接触的主观意愿均促使消费者从线下购物转向无接触式线上消费。从线下购物、外出就餐、现场观看歌舞表演和演唱会,到现在足不出户即可通过直播看服装导购试穿裙子、展示面料和穿着效果,看餐厅环境、出品和就餐体验,听线上演唱会、看歌舞剧团成员在线表演,迎合了懒人经济。KOL/KOC背书、跨界联名、社群营销等“新营销”模式,利用互联网直达目标客户群体,是更高效、便捷、低成本的营销方式。2021年中国电商直播用户规模为4.64亿,占网民整体的44.9%。短视频直播平台与电商的结合全面改变了居民的生活模式。
回到前文的话题,餐饮企业是坚持还是放弃?前面提到的长沙渔人码头商家们,面对困境,没有躺平。他们中的一批中小商家入驻了抖音,拍短视频、做直播,主动调整营销推广方案和积极参加平台的营销活动让他们在短时间内获得了流量的爆发式增长,生意逐步恢复。一部手机,一个支架,这些商家融入到了短视频和直播平台的发展浪潮,也挽救了自己的企业。
面临外部挑战,无论是技术变革、政策环境、国际关系,还是行业的集中度等各种变化,企业都要去变阵,做对的选择比努力更重要。流量时代,企业的经营逻辑也需要发生变化。以往服装企业的扩张依赖于多开门店,而现在服装企业甚至可以没有线下门店、做纯线上经营;以往餐饮企业依靠口口相传,做连锁加盟,现在有自媒体的加持,酒香不怕巷子深。
兵无常势,水无常形,适者生存。流量时代下,服装、餐饮这些新业态在短视频直播平台上蓬勃发展。仅以抖音为例,与2021年底相比,抖音上的餐饮商家动销门店数增长约2倍;今年3-5月,中小餐饮商家动销门店数月均增幅22%,中小餐饮商家月GMV达到2万的商户数月均增幅33%。这一小切口的数据释放了经济正在逐步恢复的积极信号。这一串串数据的背后也是我们每个人的生活和命运,我深信这些数据是有温度的、有情感的。
3、启示:平台经济继续发挥普惠作用,中小企业顺势而为、抓住时代新机遇
一个企业的价值取决于这家企业对社会的价值和贡献。对社会的价值越大,企业就会越大;对社会的价值小,企业就会做得小;对社会没有贡献,那企业最终就会消亡。
大道至简,至俗至善,平台经济在支撑宏观经济的微观基础上所起的作用不可忽视。互联网平台影响着广大人民群众的生产生活,具有最广泛受众群体、最快速便捷的触达渠道。如果说互联网的发展,或者说平台经济的上半场讲求触达、流量和增长;下半场则应更强调普惠性、共赢性、有序性,强调商业模式的可持续发展性。短视频和直播平台能为中小企业提供一个绝佳的免费的展示平台,也能为中小商家沟通撮合新营销渠道,包括KOL和KOC背书、社群营销、跨界营销等方式,有助于快速打响品牌知名度。
而对于商家来说,“线上+线下”打通、进行数字化转型可以显著降低渠道和库存成本。利用大数据精准定位目标人群及其需求偏好,促进销售转化率提升;对库存实施及时检测,降低库存成本;DTC模式(直接面向消费者)在降低渠道成本的同时,增强了与消费者互动,能够提升客户黏性。
成功逆袭的商家不可或缺的特质在于抓住机遇重新出发。前文提到的几个长沙渔人码头的商家,除了持续的菜品改良以外,他们也在不断打磨运营和推广模式,努力适应自媒体平台的规则并勇敢融入这一潮流,借助平台的推荐机制将自己的短视频和直播推送给适配的客户人群,邀请抖音达人探店宣传,才最终得以翻盘。在流量时代这一技术变革和消费者偏好变化的浪潮下,中小企业应当顺势而为、抓住时代新机遇,积极地改变经营策略,才能立于不败之地。
4、感悟:对于家庭和个人而言,我们都应该向光而行,好好生活
前面关于宏观经济、行业发展、平台经济和企业经营谈得比较多了,实际上研究宏观经济的出发点和最终的落脚点永远是人,是家庭和个人。经济形势不简单是一个个冷冰冰的枯燥数据,宏观经济也不简单是微观的抽象集合。它们的背后,是一个个有温度的家庭、一个个活生生的人,是我们每个人的身影。
中国加油!除了给中国经济打气、给地方打气、给企业打气外,我也想给大家都打打气。
我经常也会在抖音上看到很多人生百态,有悲有喜,不变的是大家都在好好生活。为什么大家愿意花这么多时间在短视频和直播上?其魅力在于,除了世俗定义的成功人士在展示自己,更不乏的是努力生活的普通人。能做出色香味俱全的满汉全席的不仅有酒店名厨,也有为节省家庭开销而在家宴请的全职主妇;会因舞姿而发光的不仅有国家舞团首席舞者,也有初学舞蹈的懵懂小女;拥有奇思妙想实现创造发明的不仅有院士教授,也有那些能用手中匮乏物资创造有趣之物的普通人。
他们分享生活中的喜怒哀乐、挫折困难,从陌生人的评论和支持中汲取力量,以生活烟火传递自己的能量,以自身的努力和经历照亮自己和他人的天空。他们是世界的缩影,也是你我的映照。每个人都在用自己的方式回答生活。
前段时间和俞敏洪老师连麦,他借助抖音平台二次创业,将新东方转型成东方甄选的故事已经家喻户晓了。在绝望中寻找希望,人生终将走上辉煌。这句话和每一位好好生活的人共勉,在这个特殊的时代,希望生活在这片土地上的每个人,都积极拥抱时代的变化,实现自己的梦想,一起发光发热,一起热爱生活,一起温暖人心。
我去年也在在抖音、视频号上开了账号,希望让每个人都掌握有用有趣的财经知识。一个学者拥有名气,是社会赋予了信任,用来推动社会进步,多为改革鼓呼,为民生请命,以不负几千年来读书人的士大夫精神。
让我们一起建立愿景,经营希望,点燃未来,激发勇气,向光而行。以梦为马,不负韶华。
短视频和直播的新流量时代来了,希望你也能抓住这个媲美新能源的风口,点燃好好生活的新希望。期待!祝福!加油!
原文链接:https://www.163.com/dy/article/HD34J5I20519QIKK.html
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