依旧注意一下,数据类文章比较敏感,舔狗只是代词,千万不要以为我是舔狗。
之前我们探讨过如何对自己的用户进行分层:不知怎么选,用RFM模型看舔狗质量!
也探讨了如何判断自己适不适合海后(主播)这个业务:如何判断业务做不做,什么是UE模型?
— 1 —获客为主,服务为王
首先判断自身条件,思考我们能提供什么样的服务:比如直播、比如短视频、比如线下见面;直播时候是唱歌还是聊天,短视频是跳舞还是精品内容。这些会成为我的底色或者说基本人设,在公开的场合我需要去维护我的人设,对于商品的话,这个人设就是品牌的角色定位。在这个基础上,我提供了的服务,那么整个做这个事情就是一个UE模型,“我”就是最小运行单元,在这个事情上的所有成本以及收益会变成UE模型,这个是决策要不要做这个事情的重要基础。由于出众的外貌以及天生的才华,我走过了第一步,获取了大量流量,拥有了大批舔狗,于是我自己具有了平台属性,我会将直播这个业务、短视频这个业务、线下见面这个业务,都计算他们的UE模型,如果ROI低,那么我就会选择减少投入。同时,我会分析最重要的业务(比如直播业务)产生的粉丝价值如何,比如使用RFM模型对这个平台(流量渠道)进行用户分层,找到我的大哥:这里有两个核心:1)触达你的用户;2)提供优质的服务,留住你的用户;至于哪个流量渠道ROI高、如何提升舔狗服务率,这个是我们后面思考的,拉新+留存是重中之重!
— 2 —精细化运营
我的人设塑造十分成功,提供的内容服务,大家也很喜爱,所以我已经拥有了稳定的粉丝群体(有流量了),但他们的转换率却不高,这让我感到焦虑!
从平台角度来说,流量是有限的,如果我个人(这个产品)的UE ROI太低,平台可能会收回对我的流量资源投入(限流),这样的话我的用户增长便会受挫,固定的粉丝流失会持续,那么将陷入内卷之中,这不是长久之计,得想办法提升自己的UE效率,我需要对自己的分析进行精细化运营,这里的路径是什么?
有个姐妹给我说了LTV,但是什么是LTV?
企业的用户增长一旦减速,那么所有的业务都会受到负面影响;行业的增量一旦用完,那么企业之间只能不断内卷争夺对方流量,这样会导致无效成本提升……
什么是客户生命周期价值(LTV)
LTV(Lifetime-Value):生命周期总价值。
意为客户终生价值,从用户所有的互动中所得到的全部经济收益的总和。
通常用于衡量客户对我们(企业)所产生的价值,被定为企业是否能够取得高利润的重要参考指标。
所谓用户生命周期即从我在某流量渠道(可能是直播平台、或者短视频平台),投放了自己的服务(直播内容或者短视频)后:
1)有多少用户观看了我提供的服务,获取;
2)这些用户里面又有多少人进行了点赞和关注行为,激活;
3)更重要的是,固化下来的用户流失率是多少,留存;
4)最终,我关注的是他们的付费行为,盈利;
用户在取消关注前都是属于我的生命周期,在这个周期为我花的钱便是他的生命周期价值。
要知道,流量可不是免费的,内容服务也有各种成本(推广花了100,内容的成本更高,好心疼),我得不停的计算ROI以及盈利情况,否则便只能找个老实人嫁了!
好在,这一切好姐妹已经总结出规律:
AARR模型
AARR模型是用户分析的经典模型,是一个典型的漏斗结构。它从生命周期的角度,描述了用户进入平台需经历的四个环节,最终获取商业价值。
获取(Acquisition):
用户从哪个渠道进入?渠道贡献的用户份额?哪些分类或内容更能吸引用户?
比如这个舔狗是在朋友圈看到我的照片,还是在抖音看到我的短视频,或者在B站上看到我的舞蹈,或者……
所有的这种渠道都要打标签,后面做数据分析,否则后续对渠道价值会一无所知;
激活(Activation):
用户激活效率怎么样?有效活跃度怎么样的?
首先要定义舔狗激活的行为,这里的行为可以是:加群或者平台充值、或者观看我们提供的内容后点赞或者……
留存(Retention):
用户在各个渠道或不同特性下的留存率?流失率?
需要定义离开行为,比如不消费,不看我直播,这些人就已经不是我的舔狗了……
收入(Revenue):
用户的有效付费情况?生命周期(6个月)内销售额贡献?收入情况?
舔狗半年内为我花了多少钱,这个很重要!
分析LTV的意义
1. 获取更好的资源
评估每个舔狗的价值,通过论证某个拉新舔狗的渠道,这类渠道拉取的用户可以给我们带来更多的商业价值,在后续选择合作渠道可以给予更多的资源分配。
2. 指导业务策略
通过探查舔狗在生命周期内产生关键性的行为的时间节点,形成新舔狗在生命周期内关键行为和表现认知,指导后续相关增长策略。
3. 评估渠道效率
拉新效率较高,哪里可以有哪些优化的方式?(我没有具体的做渠道评估方向的分析)动态拉新效果较好不好,我们要如何优化关注转化漏斗。
4. 优化用户留存
按照人群聚类的方式深度挖掘不同群组的用户,在生命周期的关键性行为是否随着生命周期阶段的变化而有什么变化,关键性指标可以是每日绑定关注数,每日充值数,有效消费数,高质量消费数;
分职业、分级别、分年龄、分地区、分渠道的探查是否活跃度不同的用户群组可能会有什么特殊的渠道或类别?
按收入横向对比不同群组的用户间,在生命周期内的关键性行为是否会有不同?
5.如何提升用户留存率:低活跃用户群体特征vs高活跃用户群体特征
高粘性用户是一群什么样的人?
高粘性用户为什么要持续在这个平台上活跃?
粘性用户VS非粘性用户的流程上的痛点与吸引点在哪?痛点:关注的转化漏斗过低,如何想办法提升关注转化率?
这里的话题很大,后面章节再讨论……
— 3 —如何计算LTV
先出一张表格(里面数据是假的),由于敏感性,隐去了一部分表头:
图表是某小型培训机构,一个英语老师一年下来用户的留存:一年下来该老师可以保持24.2个,其实算很不错的数据了,用户的ARPU(用户平均付费)为2376,所以该老师今年LTV第12月(按月付费)是:
LTV = LT(获得用户数) * ARPU = 24.2 * 2376 = 57499.2;
全年的LTV = 每个月总和 = 44w;
然后再将所有成本(房屋费用、教材等耗材、人力费用、清洁费用….)就可以拿到以该培训老师为最小运行单元的UE模型了。
至于如何提升LTV,这里的两个核心是:
1)拉新效率;
2)转化效率;
事实上AARR模型每一步都很重要,这个我们后面再继续讨论吧……
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