一路狂飙后,直播行业今年迎来收割季。表面繁荣却挡不住行业趋势的暗流涌动,市场的收割往往意味着上一个风口已经过去,从各家直播平台的动作来看,行业重心也正在发生变化,直播行业新一轮布局已经开始,打破直播边界正在成为越来越多平台的选择。
日前《南华早报》报道游戏直播平台斗鱼计划三季度在香港IPO,融资总额高达7亿美元;映客和花椒也已启动IPO,虎牙今年5月已在纽交所成功上市。如果相关IPO计划均如愿以偿,直播将是2018年诞生上市公司最多的赛道之一。已上市的四家直播类公司陌陌、虎牙和天鸽互动股价都创下新高,欢聚时代Q1财报显示出很高的增长潜力,2018年直播行业可谓是如日中天。
直播行业重心正悄然生变
6月8日陌陌股价再涨5.35%,市值达到105.95亿美元,相较于2016年初最低点已上涨高达594%;欢聚时代财报显示,其活跃用户数、付费用户数、用户付费均值等关键指标都在继续增长,其孵化出的虎牙直播股价节节攀升,最近一个交易日上涨16.37%,市值相较于发行时上涨190%。
6月7日,PC时代就诞生的直播老大天鸽互动盘中最高达到7.9港元,市值首次突破100亿港元,股价在横盘四年后,创下历史新高,应该是出人意料的。5月31日天鸽互动发布的一季度财报显示,收益为1.93亿元,同比下滑11.6%;经调整纯利为0.97亿元,同比下滑7.9%,两个关键财务都小幅下滑,股价却创造新高,除了受益于直播行业大环境利好外,与其独特的发展战略有直接关系。
天鸽互动是中国直播的鼻祖,曾经一家代表一个行业,然而在4G网络普及后,YY、映客、花椒等等移动直播新物种入侵,他被迫走上转型之路。超越微信的不是下一个微信,天鸽互动如果走移动直播新物种的路,顶多只能是追随者,只能望着别人的背影,正是因为此,走上了差异化的发展道路。
天鸽互动一边加速向移动直播转型,推出喵播、水晶直播、欢乐直播、疯播等移动直播构成矩阵,瞄准二三四线城市,同时战略入股直播新秀花椒。;另一边则是突破直播边界,采取流量经营模式,低价收购人气相机类产品无他相机形成入口级流量,再利用这些流量,在直播外不断催生新产品,而且大都不是直播类产品,进而形成多元化的商业模式。简单地说,就是跟移动直播平台不在一个象限竞争。
今年陌陌有了成立以来的第一次大手笔收购,唐岩出手6亿美元收购了探探;欢聚时代旗下的虎牙已成功上市,一季度财报发布时宣布邀请百度前高管鲁鹏俊加盟担任CTO在AI技术上发力。总之,如日中天的移动直播行业已经意识到风口正在过去,行业重心在变化,所以大家都是一边赚着直播的钱,一遍在直播外紧锣密鼓布局。
资本开始重新审视直播行业
今年以来虎牙、陌陌、天鸽互动等直播泛娱乐类公司股价接连上涨,让一些人直呼“看不懂”,在我看来,“看不懂”的一个原因是因为资本市场对于直播赛道正在重新审视。
在大环境整体平稳的情况下,股价均创下新高,说明投资者对于直播平台的价值判断不再只看当前的业绩指标,也更加关注未来布局,说到底投资者要投资的不是直播,而是企业本身的发展潜力和增长空间。
直播平台不论当前发展如何,都应该在打破直播边界,筹谋未来。一方面,尽管直播业务如日中天,不过任何市场都会有天花板,只分高低,早做是未雨绸缪,晚了是亡羊补牢。另一方面,直播平台有着充沛的现金流,直播平台不能将钱存在账上,而是要用来孵化新业务,布局未来,这也是互联网巨头公司的普遍做法。
大家的做法各有不同。欢聚时代采取了孵化新业务再独立拆分的思路,虎牙已经上市,在线教育平台100教育目前已拆分;陌陌今年花6亿美元收购探探,在熟悉的陌生人社交拓展新用户群,强化在陌生人社交市场的领导者地位,同时还大力推进“视频社交”战略;天鸽互动的做法在2018年出现了很大的变化,动作也最为激进。收购无他相机标志着其不再执念于直播本身,而是跨界拓展新用户,获取入口级流量,再基于流量延伸出不限于直播的新业务。获取入口级流量放首位,扩张用户大盘。
无他相机成转型支点
从一季度财报可以看到,天鸽互动2018年的发展重点就是活跃用户,足够大的用户大盘是孵化出新业务的基础。天鸽互动今年一季度MAU达到了2713万,同比增长8.9%,环比增长23.5%,这不包含已被收购的无他相机,后者才是其用户增长乃至业务增长的最大潜力。
无他相机所处的市场是比较成熟的,其中美图目前处于领先,2017年其月活用户高达4.16亿。美图市值也高达348亿港元。由于中国女性用户对“美”的追求这个市场需求太大了,只要有差异化的定位依然可脱颖而出,无他相机定位人脸仅需5/1000秒,自动美颜耗时也只有5/1000秒,特效1/100秒,每秒输出25帧画面,凭借过硬的技术,无他相机让自拍美颜更加真实,进而实现了快速的增长。
刚接触无他相机时其用户数只有100万,不过因为看到其产品和技术团队的实力,天鸽互动先进行投资,并签订对赌协议约定在后者用户数增加到500万时再行收购。今年初,无他相机实现目标,天鸽互动宣布收购无他相机,4月20日以2亿元拿到66.4%股权完成交易,目前共持有无他相机80%股权,正在进行业务整合。
去年底,无他DAU(日活跃用户)均值已达到350万,日增新用户20万,次日留存60%;春节期间,DAU超过了千万,比一年前翻了差不多一倍;3月月活跃用户已有3700万;第三方机构Questmobile数据也显示,半年来无他相机活跃用户,实现750%的增长。可见,美颜应用正在成为全世界每一个年轻女性用户的装机必备,用户基础非常好,无他相机目前增长势头很猛,它未来完全有机会成为一个类似于美图的超级工具,进而给天鸽互动带来持续的用户和流量。
正如我此前所言,最有潜力的互联网公司是那些拥有“超级应用”的,一个判断标志是DAU破亿,有了超级应用就可以实现从量变到质变,产生化学反应,比如孵化出更多产品,目前无他相机同类的工具美图就已孵化出美拍(短视频+直播社区)、美妆、手机等业务,虽然目前处于亏损(天鸽互动一直盈利),其市值却近乎是天鸽互动的三倍。
参考美图每个用户价值81.7港币(348/4.16),无他估值为31.0亿港币(0.37*83.7),同天鸽整合后保守估值应为121亿港币,对应股价约为11.7港币。因此,天鸽互动从直播切入到相机工具,未来增长空间可观,可以认为,无他相机将成为其战略转型的一个支点。
如何赢得未来?
无他相机的数据暂未体现在天鸽互动一季度财报中,二季度两者会并表。无他相机用户数还在高速增长,且其女性用户数超过85%,天鸽互动直播用户此前跟行业一样男性用户居多“阳盛阴衰”,两者重叠度不大。重要的是,更大的用户基数以及更加均衡的男女比例,会让天鸽互动的“入口级产品+服务矩阵”的战略更快落地,勾勒一张新的业务版图。
第一,抓人气流量。
腾讯的业务架构是微信和其他,虽然目前其他业务产生主要收入,不过所有人都知道微信才是腾讯的未来。天鸽互动如今也形成类似的架构:直播负责赚钱养家,无他相机负责构筑未来。在移动时代,把产品矩阵拧成一根绳子。互联网巨头往往都是“一超多强”,虽然都有许多App,但一定有旗舰应用。现在有了这个核心产品,就跟微信九宫格成就微信支付、腾讯新闻、腾讯视频等业务一样,无他相机给天鸽互动带来不只是用户叠加,而是向纯互联网企业的转变。
第二,拓展女性用户。
微信成为超级应用后,通过钱包、九宫格等一二级菜单,给腾讯以及腾讯生态伙伴们带来大量流量,很多业务都是基于微信成长起来的。无他相机未来就是天鸽互动的九宫格,因为它有大量的用户,而且用户85%是女性,80%是20岁以上的年轻人,这与此前直播业务形成了很好的互补,。而从美图成功孵化出美拍(短视频+直播社区)、美妆、手机等业务来看,高频化的相机应用也确实具备这样的能力。
天鸽互动正在基于无他孵化类似于今日头条的信息流产品,与陌陌对标的陌生人交友平台(男女均衡了),以及对标抖音的短视频平台,每一个都有可能比今天的天鸽互动要大,不只是可以带来各种各样的非直播营收机会,更有可能孵化出新物种,这一点在BAT等巨头以及跟天鸽互动曾同行的公司欢聚时代身上都发生过了。
第三,多元化收入。
直播平台的营收模式目前是很单一的,虚拟礼物打赏为主。天鸽互动很早就意识到这个问题,收购无他相机前,已在进行多元化业务布局。比如针对女性用户很适合做理财业务,还可进军美妆、医美。总而言之,就是把手里的流量价值最大化,而不只是以单一方式赚钱。
可以看到,如今天鸽互动做的很多事情,已经不是直播了,这样的事情在陌陌、欢聚时代身上也在发生,未来在映客、虎牙、斗鱼、花椒等平台身上想必也会上演。总之,移动直播行业正在悄然生变,只有改变才能拥有未来,当前的布局将决定移动直播平台未来在市场的位置。
BAT也好,FAG(Facebook、Amazon、Google)也罢,每一家互联网公司今天的状态,都是几年前甚至五、十年前的业务布局。比如今天驱动阿里增长的是阿里云、蚂蚁金服等等多年前就已在布局的业务。同样,今天的布局也将决定企业的未来,一个企业的股价、市值、市盈率,体现出投资者对这家企业的预期。按照这个逻辑来看,就很容易理解资本市场为什么如此青睐直播平台了——投资者看中的不是今天用户刷出的礼物,而是直播平台对未来的长远布局。
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