“站在风口上,猪都能飞起来。”雷军的这句经典名言被众多创业者奉为圣经。罗永浩老师正是这一理论的狂热追随者,他数次前往风口,企图起飞,但每每结局都是压灭风口,失败告终。
2019年是直播电商元年,直播带货成了新的风口,罗老师在2020年3月份宣布加入抖音,开始直播带货,立志成为“带货一哥”。然而几次直播带货翻车,道歉声频繁出现。
5月20日晚,罗永浩在微博致歉。因为在直播间售卖的“花点时间”玫瑰花束有质量问题,罗永浩团队在售卖商原价退款的同时自掏腰包补偿消费者同等现金(约100万),晚上十一点多,花点时间微博也发布道歉,再补一份现金。罗老师直播翻车的商品堪比理财产品,买一赔三。
罗老师的道歉让大众感受到了他的体面,毕竟罗老师“第一代网红”的成名史就有在北京西门子总部砸西门子冰箱的事件。而此次“520花点时间玫瑰”事件的最终结果,三方互有得失。消费者损失520玫瑰花束获得三倍赔偿金,商家名誉受损得到曝光度,罗永浩掏钱补偿赢得体面喝彩。
从此次的罗永浩致歉事件可以看出,直播带货这个行业仍存在很多问题。而一众明星、企业家、草根、网红涌入的直播带货是怎么兴起的呢?
网红的“剃须刀”+产品的“刀片”
直播带货的出现是对直播行业和电商行业的重新定义。
2016年是直播元年,进入爆发期。4G网络全面普及为线上直播提供了技术支持,以打赏为主要盈利方式是直播商业的1.0时代。这时候大多数直播以“直播+内容”的方式,以“秀自己”得到打赏变现。
这种商业模式很快到了天花板,在2019年,“直播+电商”的形式将直播的变现能力推到新的高度,直播进入商业2.0时代。2019年,是直播带货元年。李佳琦、薇娅等人纷纷出圈,“OMG买它买它”在大众间洗脑。
电商行业此前都是以搜索为主的“人找货”转变为了“货找人”。电商从业者从之前思考如何优化关键词、增加权重来提升排名和曝光机会,变成了通过直播带货的方式提升销量。
2020年一季度遭受疫情,线下市场受阻,众多商场、企业、农副产品产品滞销,纷纷前往线上自救。直播带货在这期间达到高潮,陈赫、潘玮柏、李小璐一众明星,董明珠、携程梁建章等企业家,雪梨、李佳琦、薇娅等淘宝主播,还有县长、中央电视台主持人,以及千千万万受困于疫情的服装厂、普通农户,都开始直播带货。
直播带货这一条生产线中,打造的是“网红主播”与“售卖货物”这两个产品。
除了董明珠、罗永浩还有那些带货的明星们,更主流的带货主播都是在这浪潮中兴起的。销售的产品可能是会随时改变,但都能打造出一个雪梨、李佳琦、薇娅就是平台最大的成功。
网红主播与产品之间就像是“剃须刀”与“刀片”,“刀片”随时都能换,但只要用户认可了个“剃须刀”,后续的“刀片”就好卖多了。
不过如此火爆的市场也对应产生了严监管。广州地方政府甚至出台了《广州市直播电商发展行动方案(2020-2022年)》,要将广州打造成为全国著名的直播电商之都。培育100家有影响力的MCN机构、孵化1000个网红品牌(企业名牌、产地品牌、产品品牌、新品等)、培训10000名带货达人。直播带货现今被互联网行业视作一大风口,政策扶持,资本热钱涌入,为这个风口带来许许多多的问题。
互动版的电视购物就这么香吗?这么多人疯狂涌入直播带货的风口,直播带货是否已经从蓝海转为红海?直播带货是不是割韭菜?直播带货是否像O2O一样,过分夸大,是泡沫撑起的浮华呢?直播带货行业如何持续活跃,成为像“逛超市”一样的普通行业。
业界“药丸”?深陷阿伦森效应
直播带货是什么?
直播+带货,其本质就是互动版的电视购物。
直播带货牵连几方面利益?
品牌+平台+MCN+主播+消费者。
而从这几方面来考虑,直播带货仍存在诸多问题。
从品牌来说,收益可能不及盈利。
既然来到了线上,掺和进了互联网,那就联合一下流量思维。对于品牌来说,和明星、网红主播合作主要是为了曝光度,增加流量。
全网最低价、高额佣金提成和坑位费对品牌来说基本就是赔钱赚吆喝,与声誉不好的KOL合作搞不好还会降低品牌形象。在电视广告、请代言人方面花费诸多塑造起来的品牌形象,和主播的合作失误就有可能一落千丈,比如美的和万能的大熊合作。
而且明星网红的直播带货是利用其私域流量,众多品牌一闪而过,观众很少会记住品牌,只记得“上链接”“买它买它”,流量质量没有保证。
众多品牌在和明星、网红的合作中失去议价权,被迫拿出全网最低价亏本合作。朴西电商透漏,和李佳琦合作5次,3次亏损。一些商家头部主播用不了,而中小型主播有可能是简易房量产,专赚甲方坑位费,效果不好。
线上的全网最低价也影响到线下经销商的利益,一些之前以线下经销商渠道为主的企业,在线上卖出的低价是线下万万卖不到的,品牌在线上寻求自救的同时可能会失去线下经销商的支持。
从平台来说,竞争激烈。
品牌烧钱占主播坑位的同时,平台也在烧钱抢流量。抖音签约罗永浩、李小璐,阿里请来刘涛、欧阳娜娜入职,快手、京东请董明珠直播疯狂补贴,百度姗姗来迟,CEO下场直播,并提出“欢迎大家来直播带货”,哪家都不愿意在直播带货方面落下了。
以快手、京东为例,董明珠在抖音首场直播因为卡顿翻车,销售额仅有23.25万元。在快手直播时,快手请来二驴夫妇、李鑫,为格力的每个产品进行官方补贴,实现全网最低价,创下3亿销售额。京东则是请来王自如,补贴产品+大额优惠券,许多产品实现全年最低价,收获7亿销售额。
假如董明珠再换个平台呢?还有平台继续加大补贴吗?
宏观经济学中有一种理论是,如果你的产品没有可持续的差异化,那么就会出现价格竞争,结果就是顾客永远会赢。现在直播带货的本质就是价格战,比拼的就是全网最低价。
根据心理学中的阿伦森效应(随着奖励减少而导致态度逐渐消极,随着奖励增加而导致态度逐渐积极的心理现象),各大平台、品牌商补贴越大,消费者越积极,补贴减少,消费者用户就会减少,不可持续。
自带流量的明星企业家是平台增加影响力和证明带货实力的有效手段,但高额的补贴不会长久。
从MCN机构来说,鱼龙混杂。
资本进入直播带货领域后,带来许多热钱,同时也会带来许多投机者。根据天眼查显示,最近一年开的MCN公司有194家,很难说其中没有投机取巧的。
加之最近爆出很多商家被MCN机构坑钱的例子,有合作后不上直播链接开淘宝客,有以李佳琦、辛巴等头部主播无坑位费纯佣骗取合作费立马拉黑,有坑甲方钱去投资的。
甚至有些MCN机构两头坑,坑了商家坑主播。主播签约之后扣取直播提成,开设直播带货培训课程其实什么都没讲,割创业者韭菜。
长期混乱下去的话,会造成MCN机构信任缺失,大型MCN机构独大,小型MCN机构无人敢合作。
从主播来说,头部固定,小网红翻身难。
“明星带货”(陈赫、刘涛等)和“带货明星”(李佳琦、薇娅等)具有庞大的私域流量,与品牌有议价权,有全网低价,而全网低价能吸引更多的人进入直播间,中小主播流量越来越少。品牌商找头部主播成本高,中小主播效果又不好,头部主播会因为马太效应越来越固定,而新的“带货明星”很难脱颖而出。
从消费者角度来说,权益难保障。
很多主播的宣传是违反广告法的,“最好”“最佳”之类的词夸大宣传,保健品说出医疗效果虚假宣传。线下把固体饮料当成奶粉宣传造成“大头娃娃”近期热议,和线下一样,线上一些主播在带货时毫无顾忌,虚假宣传层出不穷。
在追求一些全网最低价的结果就是收货时发现“货不对款”,要么就是阉割款,消费者维权难。头部主播也不例外,在黑猫投诉上,有关李佳琦的投诉达252条。
“文似看山不喜平”,直播也如此。许多直播带货有固定的剧本,抓住消费者占便宜的心理,在不知不觉中就进入主播的圈套,匆忙下单,以为捡了便宜,实际被割了一刀。
精细化场景的5A模型
纵观各个行业的发展史,无一不是从野蛮生长到精耕细作。直播带货行业日渐火热,想持续火热下去,还需要从业者共同努力,而不是一拥而上,瓜分资本。
我们以现代企业的工作流程来分析消费者上层的品牌、平台、MCN机构、主播。
对于消费者上层的品牌、MCN、平台、主播来说,要明白自己的产品是什么,品牌是货,MCN是资源,主播是推广能力和流量,平台是基础服务,分析确定需求和定位,然后研发打磨自身产品,通过提高产品的价值,实现最大程度上的盈利。
品牌的货是否有瑕疵,MCN能否提供最有效的主播给商家,能否为主播带来资源,平台的技术、流量能否撑起直播带货,主播是否有强推广能力。
产品研发好之后就是运营,也就是做好产品的营销。
根据《营销革命4.0:从传统到数字》一书中提到的消费者购买路径的5A模型:认知(aware)—吸引(appeal)—询问(ask)—行动(act)—拥护(advocate),位于消费者上层的品牌商、平台、MCN、主播都要用自己的方式对自己的消费者做到这路径的5A模型打通,最难的就是拥护,也就是消费者的留存率。
在互联网行业,流量质量大于流量数量,场景大于流量,留存大于拉新。品牌商要找符合自身产品消费者和主播粉丝、平台用户画像重叠大的KOL、平台做直播带货,平台同样可以签约和自身平台符合的主播、明星。做好流量质量保证的同时,深挖场景需求。比如平台的官方推广、小主播前期入门指导。最后留存率,也就是复购率是关键。都应把自己的品牌、服务、能力做成“刮胡刀”生意,深挖用户的长期价值。
从消费者层面说,一定要擦亮眼睛,提升自己的洞察力,理解自己的真是需求,不能盲目消费,警惕剧本带货。同时要拿起自己维权的武器,在权益受到侵害时,举报投诉商家和主播。
行业初期的野蛮生长需要行业相关人员共同努力,将行业引向正当化可持续发展,不能只想着挣快钱。如电竞行业,早期一片荒芜,正是行业从业者和电竞爱好者的热爱,持续开垦,引入资本,成了现在颇具规模的样子。
“站在风口上,猪都可以飞起来”的下半句是“长个小翅膀,就可以飞得更高”。许多人都只看到了上半句,期望攀上直播带货的风口,可下半句却没几个人关注。进入直播带货风口的人们,长出自己的“小翅膀”了吗?用自己的“小翅膀”为直播带货行业煽动起持续的风吧。
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